| This is the image reflected
in Around the Nation's crystal ball. Then again 370 other teams
could hoist the trophy in 2013 as well. d3photography.com photo by Ryan Coleman |
It’s prediction time again, so get the red pens uncapped and the eyes ready to roll. The good news from last year is that three contributors picked Marietta to win the championship. The good news about predictions from last year ends thusly. The managerial handbook says to look for ways to review things with a good-bad-good compliment sandwich. After further review the 2012 Around the Nation predictions column provided just that one slice of bread.
Last year a crack team of D3baseball.com contributors, including a particular columnist, went 25–for-38 (66 percent) in predicting conference winners as a group. Not horrible, but definitely not a slice of bread. Conference predictions were deemed incorrect if the selected team failed to win either the regular season or the tournament, if applicable. The 2012 collective didn’t identify winners correctly in the CCIW, HCAC, LEC, LL, MIAA, NEAC, NECC, NCAC, NWC, ODAC, PAC, SCIAC and WIAC. The bottom line is that the group’s 66 percent rate in collective, knowledgeable selections would get you a “D” in many classes and perhaps on your way to becoming ineligible to play collegiate athletics.
This year Around the Nation will take it steps further, predicting at-large berths along with the automatic qualifiers, the Appleton-bound and the national champion. Also different from 2012 is that predictions were made for all 43 Division III conferences whether they are Pool A or not, and the predictions were not farmed out to contributors. It’s much easier for one columnist to fall on one sword than other good folks falling on even more swords. Notice that it says much easier, not much nobler. Besides, who has seven swords anyway? Sorry, Steven Seagal isn’t in the Around the Nation Rolodex. Yet.
Yes, very good teams will be left out due to upsets, the Division III philosophy or another indignation-inducing reason. In fact about a dozen at-large predictions were swapped out before reaching conclusions, which are very much targets for ridicule and, with any luck, informed debate. If you say, “What about [fill in your favorite snub]?” chances are that team was once in the Around the Nation crystal ball field of 56. It’s not easy in the preseason. It doesn’t get much easier in May.
Enough with the qualifiers. Here are the early March Around the Nation prognostications that are sure to become genuine reality truth facts in a few months.
Around the Nation’s preseason conference winners
(43):
Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: La
Roche (25-19)
My predicted winner: Penn State Behrend (29-15-1)
Why?: La Roche. No, wait. Behrend because it lost just two
seniors, but it will be a tight race.
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winners: Concordia (Texas) (37-11); Texas Tyler (33-12)
My predicted winner: Texas Lutheran (27-14)
Why?: Increasingly a pitcher’s league, TLU has a lot of it coming back despite losing ace Brad Orosey.
|
My top 5 games of the week (March 6-12): March 6: No. 5 Christopher Newport vs. No. 7 Salisbury 1st of 2 meetings to help determine regional seeding. March 7: No. 2 St. Thomas vs. No. 11 UW-Whitewater UWW and UW-La Crosse open with UST this week. March 10: No. 3 Marietta vs. Wooster Perennial Mideast powers exchange pleasantries in Florida. March 11: No. 1 Wheaton (Mass.) vs. No. 12 Saint Joseph’s (Maine) Potential 2013 Harwich Regional final preview. March 11: No. 4 Cortland St. vs. No. 20 Webster Didn’t play each other in Appleton, so they’ll settle it in Florida. |
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Salisbury (34-9)
Why?: Ace Andrew Levy and seven lineup regulars are back from last year’s regional finalist team.
Centennial Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Haverford (25-19)
My predicted winner: Johns Hopkins (25-16-2)
Why?: Offense should be great with eight returning starters, but they lose 21 wins from last year’s staff.
City University of New York Athletic Conference*
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Staten Island (21-18)
Why?: Took second place by one game last year despite having just four seniors on the roster.
College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Illinois Wesleyan (31-17)
My predicted winner: Illinois Wesleyan
Why?: Eight returning offensive starters should help the pitching staff find itself in a competitive league.
Colonial States Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Keystone (37-8)
My predicted winner: Neumann (32-15)
Why?: All-America pitcher Russ Gilliam headlines a strong senior class vying to overtake Keystone.
Commonwealth Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Alvernia (31-14-1)
My predicted winner: Alvernia
Why?: Won conference by six games in 2012 and returns eight to the lineup and three starting pitchers.
Commonwealth Coast Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Western New England (38-13)
My predicted winner: Western New England
Why?: Seven from the lineup and four starting pitchers return, making WNE a national contender.
Empire 8*
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Ithaca (29-10-1)
My predicted winner: St. John Fisher (31-12)
Why?: SJF can score despite senior losses, and All-America Justin D’Amato and JC transfer will top staff.
Freedom Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: DeSales (29-14)
My predicted winner: Misericordia (36-10)
Why?: A coin flip with DeSales, but Misericordia’s returning pitchers tip the scales slightly.
Great Northeast Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Saint Joseph’s (Maine) (39-7)
My predicted winner: Saint Joseph’s (Maine)
Why?: All-America pitcher Chad Rafferty leads a list of 22 returnees vying for their fourth straight NCAA.
Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Manchester (28-21)
My predicted winner: Manchester
Why?: Two All-Americans are among a roster returning all nine bats and 91 percent of its 2012 innings.
Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Wartburg (23-20)
My predicted winner: Wartburg
Why?: Seven all-IIAC players, including three all-region selections, return after finishing third in 2012.
|
My 2013 Week 2 ballot (D3baseball.com rank) 1 (3). Marietta – Anderson DH not included in poll. 2 (2). St. Thomas – Swept 2012 regional team Coe. 3 (1). Wheaton (Mass.) – Allowed 2 runs in 2-0 start. 4 (4). Cortland State – Scored 46 runs in 4-0 week. 5 (11). UW-Whitewater – Late-night 3/7 DH vs. St. Thomas. 6 (17). Ramapo – Idle until 3/16 after 2-0 start. 7 (12). St. Joseph’s (Maine) – Opens 3/9 in Florida. 8 (9). Kean – Eked by Neumann in 11 during 4-0 week. 9 (6). Trinity (Texas) – 4-0 week vs. well-below .500 teams. 10 (15). Linfield – Won 10 straight after opening loss. The rest of my ballot: Western New England; Adrian; Christopher Newport; Ithaca; Trinity (Conn.); Southern Maine; Millsaps; Aurora; Washington and Jefferson; UW-Stevens Point; Neumann; Salisbury; Keystone; UT-Tyler; Illinois Wesleyan. |
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Catholic (24-17)
My predicted winner: Moravian (28-16)
Why?: The Greyhounds lost key seniors but return enough to win a tight race in a competitive league.
Liberty League
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: St. Lawrence (28-14)
My predicted winner: St. Lawrence
Why?: Returns virtually the entire offense that batted .330 and scored 7.3 runs per game last year.
Little East Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Southern Maine (27-19)
My predicted winner: Southern Maine
Why?: Tough call, but the Huskies return eight offensive starters from their 2012 LEC title team.
Massachusetts State College Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Bridgewater State (30-15)
My predicted winner: Salem State (31-12-1)
Why?: Loss of Pitcher of the Year Matt Kerr hurts, but five all-conference players set to return.
Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Adrian (32-8)
My predicted winner: Adrian
Why?: Returns all but three starters to a squad that won the league by six games in 2012.
Midwest Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winners: St. Norbert (27-13); Illinois College (21-13)
My predicted winner: St. Norbert
Why?: The offense suffered big graduation hits, but nearly the entire pitching staff is set to return.
Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: St. Thomas (41-10)
My predicted winner: St. Thomas
Why?: Perhaps the nation’s best starting pitcher duo in Steve Maher and Dylan Thomas.
New England Collegiate Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Daniel Webster (23-19)
My predicted winner: Daniel Webster
Why?: Had just two senior starters when it won the regular season and tourney championships in 2012.
New England Small College Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Trinity (Conn.) (34-11)
Why?: Seven of the top eight pitchers return for a staff that had a 2.70 ERA and a .220 OBA last season.
New England Women’s and Men’s Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Wheaton (Mass.) (41-11)
New Jersey Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Kean (37-12)
My predicted winner: Ramapo (35-15)
Why?: Possibly the nation’s best conference, and Ramapo stakes its claim with 10 returning pitchers.
North Atlantic Conference*
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Castleton State (34-16)
Why?: Top two pitchers are gone, but Player of the Year Ryan Zielinski returns with help from transfers.
North Coast Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Wooster (27-18)
My predicted winner: Kenyon (27-12)
Why?: Playing a hunch, but nearly everyone returns, including five all-conference players.
North Eastern Athletic Conference
Why?: Newly postseason eligible, these Nittany Lions return three first-team bats and nearly every pitcher.
Northern Athletics Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Aurora (38-10)
My predicted winner: Aurora (38-10)
Why?: Loaded pitching staff should help offset losing its head coach and five offensive starters.
Northwest Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Whitworth (31-16-1)
My predicted winner: Whitworth
Why?: Dogfight like 2012 yet the Pirates are the only ones returning All-Americans at bat and on mound.
Ohio Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Marietta (48-8)
Why?: The Mount Union (28-15) juniors are able, but Marietta didn’t lose everything from its title team.
Old Dominion Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Bridgewater (Va.) (31-14)
My predicted winner: Lynchburg (34-10)
Why?: Need to turn it on quickly, but these Hornets won it in 2012 and return six bats and 10 pitchers.
President’s Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Washington & Jefferson (36-10)
My predicted winner: Washington & Jefferson
Why?: With 20 returnees W&J may be better than in 2012, when it set the program record for wins.
Skyline Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Farmingdale State (31-12)
My predicted winner: Farmingdale State
Why?: Senior loss of Pitcher of the Year Chris Phalen hurts, but the Rams were regional finalists in 2012.
St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Webster (36-14)
Why?: World Series participant last year and has won the SLIAC regular season or tourney since 2005.
Southern Athletic Association*
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Birmingham-Southern (38-9)
Why?: National Player of the Year Bruce Maxwell and crew are gone, but much of the pitching returns.
Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Pomona-Pitzer (25-12-1)
Why?: Eight return to the Sagehen lineup in a conference where you need all the offense you can get.
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Trinity (Texas) (37-12)
My predicted winner: Trinity (Texas)
Why?: A healthy All-America pitcher Ryan Lucero helps curb the losses of Klimesh, Robusto and Pappas.
State University of New York Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Cortland State (41-9-1)
Why?: Seniors and others are gone, but All-America John Adornetto and many transfers are on board.
University Athletic Association*
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: Washington-St. Louis (28-14)
Why?: Lost an All-America outfielder, but nearly everyone else is back from last year’s regional squad.
USA South Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: Christopher Newport (34-10)
My predicted winner: Christopher Newport
Why?: While CNU has quality among the quantity of pitchers returning, the offense is almost entirely new.
Upper Midwest Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: St. Scholastica (35-11)
My predicted winner: St. Scholastica
Why?: Only because the Saints have never not won the conference since they joined in 1997.
Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference
Coaches’ or SID’s predicted winner: [None as of 3/5]
My predicted winner: UW-Whitewater (33-17)
Why?: Two preseason All-America infielders are among six returning to the starting lineup.
* Not a Pool A conference in 2013, according pools provided by the NCAA.
Around the Nation’s preseason Pool B teams (4): Birmingham-Southern, Millsaps, St. John Fisher, Washington-St. Louis.
Around the Nation’s preseason Pool C teams (14): Bowdoin, Cal Lutheran, Chicago, Eastern Connecticut, Ithaca, Kean, Keystone, Linfield, Montclair State, Mount Union, Saint John’s, Shenandoah, UW-Stevens Point, Wooster.
Around the Nation’s preseason picks for Appleton (8): Adrian, Christopher Newport, Cortland State, Ramapo, St. Thomas, Trinity (Texas), Washington-St. Louis, Western New England.
And after burying the lede sufficiently, Around the Nation predicts St. Thomas over Western New England in the championship.
A particular columnist votes on the D3baseball.com postseason awards and prefers not to sway opinions with thoughts on national Player of the Year and national Pitcher of the Year. So, predictions out of the way, you can quit rolling your eyes now, please and thank you. But more importantly, let the ridicule begin!
Next week: Part I of a two-column conversation with the national selection chair.