May 13, 2024

Our 2024 projected bracket

Randolph-Macon went 0-2 in the double elimination round of the ODAC tournament. Did they do enough to make the 2024 NCAA playoffs?
d3photography.com photo by Mike Atherton
 

 

Creating an Division III baseball NCAA Tournament bracket is pretty simple, when you come down to it. You take 10 regional rankings, pick 21 at-large teams, create 16 first-round sites, and ... well, it's a lot of numbers.

All of this makes the job of picking two Pool B teams and 19 at-large teams (Pool C) a little more involved than it used to be, and constructing a bracket has some considerations that need to be made as well. But the Field of 60 includes 14 four-team double-elimination regionals, and two best-of-five series between two teams.

As usual, these picks do not influence the NCAA Tournament selection committee's picks, nor does our Top 25 poll. No national Top 25 is ever considered in an NCAA selection process. Two teams in the top 25 do not make our bracket but then again we only select 21 teams where our poll has 25 teams and the coaches poll has 30 teams.  We are first in the suggestion that performance on the diamond should prevail over anyone's opinion. We also agree that an oops in the conference tournament should not necessarily disqualify you from a playoff appearance.

Here are our projections.

We start by projecting the regional rankings for each of the 10 regions because that's how the process actually starts. The regional committees that have been producing those rankings do it one more time and then send them to the national tournament selection committee. That committee may make adjustments to the regional rankings, which can alter which teams are regionally ranked, which then changes some teams' records against regionally ranked opponents (one of the criteria in selecting at-large teams).

Eventually the national committee ends up with a final list of regional rankings, which they will announce after the brackets are released. The rankings include teams that have clinched automatic bids, which are set aside for the bracketing stage. Then the highest ranked team without an automatic bid within each region comes to the table for consideration as an at-large candidate. There are 10 teams up for consideration at any point, one from each region. When a team is picked, the next highest ranked team within that region comes to the table.

This is a critical point in the conversation as nothing is as important as the regional rankings as one team can block a deserving team if they fall behind a blocking team. In the selection of the at-large bids, only the top teams in all 10 regions are considered.  We made the following changes from the last published rankings. We believe Marietta, Tufts and Wheaton (Mass.) played themselves into the regional rankings. We also put UMass-Boston above Roger Williams, Union above Oswego State, and Elizabethtown above Catholic. A lot of discussion was made whether it was Buena Vista above Luther or visa versa. With 3-0 record, we kept Luther above Buena Vista in our final regional rankings. These decisions would prove critical in our selections.

Pool B is set aside for teams in conferences which are not eligible for automatic bids. This year, those conferences are the City University of New York Athletic Conference, the Coast-to-Coast Conference, the College Conference of the South, and the University Athletic Association. Our committee picked Salisbury and Christopher Newport, both members of the C2C, from this group, and referred the rest fo the at-large pool.

We knew there were a number of obvious picks who were going to make the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, and rather than go through the extensive debate, we placed the following teams in the field as at-large selections: East Texas Baptist, Cortland, Eastern Connecticut State, Penn State Harrisburg, Randolph-Macon, Salve Regina and UW-La Crosse.

We are seven teams into the process and our sixth team is Trinity (Texas). We could have easily waived the Tigers in but had to start somewhere and there was little debate on their bone fides. The Case Western Spartans were next. 

Taken next was Transylvania. The Pioneers resume is actually a little vanilla, but they were 4-4 against regionally ranked opponents and a high position in the rankings was enough for our committee. Starting the tournament weekend as the number two team in region with the possibility of two losses might knock you off the porch but coming a win from the HCAC title was enough for the committee.

Remember when our decision to change the regional rankings might prove significant, this was the first case where we feel , based on the numbers, that UMass Boston made the grade and was our pick #11. Colby came off the board next in recognition of their season.

Our next two picks were Aurora and Arcadia. Both teams played deep into their conference tournaments. This was the point that it started to get harder to know who should be picked by out mock committee.  Can you say bubble teams?

Resetting our board for the moment: Colby, Coast Guard, Oswego State, Rowan, Elizabethtown, Birmingham-Southern, Otterbein, North Park, Luther,  La Verne.

At this spot, our committee picks out Luther. The Norse had a middle of the road SOS but a plus .500 record (7-4) against regionally ranked opponents.

Rowan goes next. The Profs had plenty of promise at the beginning of the season but we have them squeezing in in the 16th of 19 at-large bids.

With Rowan off the board, the slot was filled by Kean. When compared to the rest of the board, Kean was tops and was out 17th selection.

Remember that we said our our changes to the regional rankings would prove critical?  Our selection of Elizabethtown is is another case where it proved true. Catholic made a quick exit in the conference tournament where Elizabethtown was only sent home on the final day of the D3 season.

With the final selection, we chose Birmingham-Southern. The Panthers will be making this the last hurrah for the team and head coach. The college is closing after the season and one last chance of glory is earned in our opinion.

Still on the board were our 20th and 21st picks: Catholic and Stockton. Unfortunately, the field is set at 60 teams instead of the expected increase to 64 very soon. Both the Cardinals and Ospreys will have to hope our prediction prove false.

We are often surprised at the regionals set up by the committee like the Lynchburg regional with the Hornets hosting Birmingham Southern, Earlham and Salve Regina. We like a more compact format so parents do not have to travel as much. like the NCAA we avoid teams in the same conference in the same regional.

Here's how we would pair them up from west to east:

Super Regional 1

Pomona-Pitzer hosts a five-game series with Concordia-Texas*.
East Texas Baptist hosts a regional with Birmingham-Southern, Trinity (Texas) and Willamette*.

Super Regional 2

UW-Whitewater host a regional with Beloit, Hanover, and Luther.
UW-La Crosse hosts a regional with Bethel, Coe and Crown.

Super Regional 3

Spalding hosts Aurora, Centenary (La.)* and Milikin.
Benedictine hosts a regional with Adrian, Transylvania and Washington & Jefferson.

Super Regional 4

Denison hosts a five-game series with Case Western.
Baldwin Wallace hosts a regional with Centre, Penn State-Behrend and Ramapo.

Super Regional 5

Christopher Newport hosts a regional with Immaculata, NC Wesleyan and Randolph-Macon.
Salisbury hosts a regional with Alvernia, Lynchburg, and Scranton.

Super Regional 6

Misericordia hosts a regional with Elizabethtown, Keystone, and St. John Fisher.
Johns Hopkins hosts a regional with Kean, SUNY New Paltz and St. Joseph's (L.I.).

Super Regional 7

Cortland hosts a regional with Ithaca, Penn State Middlebury and Harrisburg.
Endicott hosts a regional with Bridgewater State, Colby and Mass-Boston.

Super Regional 8

Salve Regina hosts a regional with Husson, Mitchell, and Mass-Dartmouth.
Babson hosts a regional with Arcadia, Eastern Connecticut State, Rowan.

* Teams which are flying in the first weekend.

Keep an eye on D3baseball.com for coverage of the bracket reveal on Monday.