|
| Shenandoah is our pick to be first in if COVID knocks out any of the 48 teams in the NCAA playoffs. Shenandoah athletics photo |
By Jim Dixon
D3sports.com
The final of 42 automatic bids were handed out on Sunday afternoon but the three remaining championships on Sunday did not have an impact on who will get one of the six at-large bids.
When super regionals were introduced two years ago, who would have thought that by now they would still be an anomaly? This year a reduced playoff field has us back into eight regionals with their champions making the trip to Iowa.
Finding eight hosts proved to be a problem in the COVID world we have lived in for the past 15 months. Therefiore the regional makeup looks different than in previous years.
Our mock NCAA committee went going through the same process that the NCAA committee does. We took all of the same data the NCAA looks at and went through the same process. Our group, made up of D3baseball.com writers, contributors and people with knowledge of the selection process, sat down on the phone to do the same thing.
That is, namely, the impossible: Construct the perfect bracket.
The results of the NCAA’s official selection committee discussions are slated to be released by the end of Sunday. Here’s what we think they should do. What we think the committee will do, in some cases, is a completely different result.
Our Field of 48 has 42 automatic bids, which you can see on our Playoff Central page. With no Pool B bids this year, we went straight to the Pool C or at-large bids. There was one change. Amherst has decided that no spring sports will participate in the NCAA playoffs so the Pool A bid for the NESCAC will be given to the runner-up, Tufts.
Projected Pool C bids (6 bids)
The team that would have earned the single Pool B bid, if they were available, is the first team off the boards. Washington University has the resume to be a lock to make the playoffs. The Bears assembled a top notch schedule and won on the field to earn the right to continue their season into the playoff round.
The selection process involves pulling the top at-large candidate from each region "onto the board" -- into the discussion. Those eight teams are then debated on the terms of their overall results against Division III opponents, their strength of schedule, their head-to-head results, results against common opponents and results against regionally ranked opponents.
Our process started with North Central (Ill.), Penn State Abington, Wooster, St. Thomas, Eastern Connecticut State, Oswego State, Shenandoah and Trinity (Texas). From this group, St. Thomas (Minn.), playing their last Division III season, was moved off the board into the playoffs. The Tommies had all the right attributes and it was the 14 wins against regionally ranked opponents that stood out. St. Thomas was replaced by Gustavus as the mock committee looked for their third selection.
Eastern Connecticut State was chosen next. They had 30-plus wins, a top 50 SOS and their battles with Southern Maine this year will be tops in Little East history. Halfway through and the decisions were obvious but that will not continue.
The decisions got more difficult after this point. Oswego State got the nod next. They sport a plus record against regionally ranked opponents, a No. 20 SOS and an .828 winning percentage.
With Babson taking ECSU's spot on the board and SUNY Brockport moving up in the New York Region, our next selection was North Central (Ill.). A decent SOS, a program record for wins and beating regionally ranked opponents at a .667 rate was enough to justify slotting them in the fifth at-large bid. Augustana took their spot on the board.
Trinity (Texas) had their time on the board come to an end. They were the last number one regional seed remaining and although there was questions about a 150th ranked SOS, they had the best record against regionally ranked opponents in the teams remaining.
We lived in a COVID world and we took note that out in the Northwest Conference, one team dropped out and was replaced. We continued our deliberations, adding four more selections just in case a team has to drop out. Our next four are Shenandoah, Gustavus, Penn State-Abington, and Augustana. One can say that no win loomed larger than Penn State-Abington's win over Rowan this year and was part of why the Nittany Lions are one of our four teams left holding in the green room.
This led us to the bracketing process, which is fairly similar to the basketball bracketing. We knew because two regionals were in Minnesota, the number of flights would be higher than normal (those teams taking a flight are noted with an asterisk). We also knew that the field at Northwestern (Minn.) just outside St. Paul does not allow metal spikes so anyone at that regional had to drive because they needed extra baggage with two sets of shoes for every player.
The bracket goes as follows:
Hartford regional: 1. Southern Maine, 2. Cortland, 3. Wheaton (Mass.), 4. Mitchell, 5. Merchant Marine, 6. Husson.
Auburn regional: 1. Eastern Connecticut, 2. Oswego State, 3. Rochester, 4. Salve Regina, 5. Tufts, 6. Johnson and Wales.
High Point regional: 1. Salisbury, 2. Washigton and Jefferson, 3. Penn State-Harrisburg, 4. LaGrange, 5. Lynchburg, 6. Birmingham-Southern.
Marietta regional: 1. Rowan, 2. Keystone, 3. Marietta, 4. St. John Fisher, 5. York, 6. Misericordia.
Decatur regional: 1. Washington Univ., 2. Webster, 3. Texas Lutheran*, 4. Marymount*, 5. Penn State-Behrend*, 6. Millikin
Whitewater regional: 1. Adrian, 2. UW-Whitewater, 3. Denison, 4. Pacific*, 5. Transylvania, 6. Scranton*
St. Paul regional: 1. St. Thomas (Minn.), 2, North Central (Ill.), 3. Luther, Aurora, 5. Northwestern (Minn.), 6. Illinois College.
Collegeville regional: 1. Trinity (Texas), 2. Texas-Dallas*, 3. Chapman*, 4. St. Mary's (Minn.), 5. Johns Hopkins, 6. Salem State*